We're Rapidly Approaching the Crisis to Which 2008 Was a Warm Up
Stocks broke
down in a big way this week, falling below the trendline that has supported
them since late August. Indeed, it looks as though we not only broke below this
line but have since rallied to retest it: a classic pattern during corrections.
The question
now is if this is just a minor correction or the start of something more. The
S&P 500 appears to have formed a rising bearish wedge pattern (see above),
which usually is a termination pattern that results in the underlying security
falling to retest its base (in this case 1050 or so on the S&P 500).
While this
might not seem like a big deal, I can assure it is THE most significant issue
the financial markets face right now. The reason for this is that IF the
Bernanke “Put” is no longer relevant, that is additional liquidity and
bailouts, doesn’t actually induce a rally anymore… then the entire financial
system will collapse in one form or another.
Remember,
the only thing that pulled us from the brink in 2008 was Bernanke printing like
a lunatic. It’s the ONLY thing that has held the market together. And while it
may have kicked off a major rally in stocks… it FAILED to address the underlying
issues that caused the Crisis in the first place: namely excessive debt and
leverage.
In fact,
Bernanke has made the financial system even MORE leveraged than it was in 2008.
So if the Fed’s moves no longer have an effect on the markets, then it’s time
for the REAL Crisis… the Crisis to which 2008 was a warm up.
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